🔗 Share this article

At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to embrace a firm approach concerning Ukraine. After issuing threats of "serious consequences" in August if Putin continued hindering truce talks, Trump finally imposed substantial penalties on Russia's two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action seriously affected Putin's capability to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

But, through his newly presented comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, which was drafted by US and Russian diplomats without Ukraine's or European participation, the former president has clearly returned to his favorable to Russia stance.

Benefiting Invasion

This plan would in practice reward the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in peril. Despite ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", significant aspects of the initiative in reality weaken that same sovereignty. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his real-estate background, Trump persists to consider the war as a simple border issue, as if giving Russia a portion of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the leader. But, Putin's war is not simply about occupying a charred swath of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. It is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's apparent goal to eliminate it so it stops serves as an enticing example for the Russian people of the accountable government that his deepening dictatorship withholds them.

Territorial Surrenders

While maintaining in position the currently separated Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would force Ukraine to give up all of Donetsk region. In addition to favoring the Russian Federation with land that its military have been unable to seize in over a lengthy period of fighting, this surrender would leave Ukrainian defensive positions critically undermined.

The area is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the fortified defensive positions that constitute a critical obstacle to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a open way to Kyiv in case he later choose to restart the conflict.

Defense Restrictions

Additionally, in a move that would enable future conflict simpler for Russia, Trump would force Ukraine to cut the size of its military from their existing large number soldiers to a limit of this lower number. Significantly, the proposal sets no such restrictions on the invading army.

Seemingly as a concession to Putin's attempts to portray the nation's democratically elected administration as radicals, the plan states: "Every extremist belief system and activities must be rejected and prohibited." As if to underscore this element, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. At the same time, Trump imposes no requirement that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by allowing votes in Russia.

Defense Assurances

Admittedly, the proposal has Russia commit not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in law its stance of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that Putin has broken comparable accords in the previous instances – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to honor the nation's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a restoration of occupied areas in the Donbas to Kyiv – why should the international community believe Russia now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international protection assurances. Although the plan warns of a "immediate coordinated military response" should Russia restart its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the particulars range from unclear to troubling. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent alliance nations from positioning troops on Ukraine's soil, thus blocking the reassurance force, likely commanded by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Putin from rebuilding his diminished troops, restocking, and reinvading.

World Concern

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any subsequent "significant, deliberate, and sustained aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an assault endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This implies a armed reaction. However different from a strong national defense – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against additional invasion – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of alliance members, like the US administration, to act with force to Putin's aggression, an action they have {not